Exit scenarios
Before you wire, see what the round does to you.
Every follow-on decision asks the same three questions. What does the round do to our ownership? What is our position worth if we invest, and if we pass? And what does either answer look like at an exit? Today that is a side spreadsheet, rebuilt for every deal. In Capradix it is a page.
How it works
- Propose the round. Pre-money valuation or share price, round size, an option pool target if the term sheet has one, and the check you are considering. Add as many future rounds as you want, priced or SAFE, in any order.
- The paper converts by its own terms. Every outstanding SAFE and note converts at the proposed price the way its document says: cap price against the right capitalization for its form, discount price, the lower of the two, interest to the close. Post-money SAFEs are diluted by the new option pool; pre-money paper is not. You see each conversion priced out.
- Read Pass against Invest. Ownership, position value, cost basis and multiple, side by side, on the real cap table as it stands today.
- Add exits at any valuations. Each one runs through the liquidation preference stack, then each round’s carry at its own hurdle, then down to what every investor entity takes home. Gross, carry, net, multiple and IRR to the exit date.
Nothing here touches your records. A scenario is a working paper: it sits on top of the facts, it never enters a statement or a report, and investors never see it.
A worked example
Acme Angels hold two positions in Harbor Diagnostics: 225,000 Seed shares bought at $1.00 in 2023, when the company had 9,000,000 shares fully diluted, and $100,000 of a $1,000,000 post-money SAFE at a $10M cap from 2025. Their SPV charges a 2% admin fee and earns 20% carry above a 2x hurdle, gated round by round.
The company proposes a Series A: $6M at $30M pre-money, closing June 2026. Acme is offered $300,000.
| The round | Pass | Invest $300,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Series A share price | $3.00 | $3.00 |
| Post-money valuation | $36,000,000 | $36,000,000 |
| The SAFE converts at | $1.00 · 1,000,000 shares | $1.00 · 1,000,000 shares |
| Our shares after the round | 325,000 | 425,000 |
| Our fully diluted ownership | 2.71% | 3.54% |
| Our position value | $975,000 | $1,275,000 |
| Our cost basis | $325,000 | $625,000 |
| Gross TVPI | 3.00x | 2.04x |
The SAFE’s cap divides into the company’s 9,000,000 shares plus the SAFE shares themselves, the post-money form, so $1,000,000 at a $10M cap is exactly 10%.
The round is the same either way; only our slice moves. The question that matters is what the extra $300,000 is worth later, so add two exits, both in June 2029.
| At exit, June 2029 | Sold for $60,000,000 | Sold for $150,000,000 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass | Invest | Pass | Invest | |
| Our gross proceeds | $1,625,000 | $2,125,000 | $4,062,500 | $5,312,500 |
| Carried interest | $258,700 | $258,700 | $746,200 | $935,000 |
| Our net proceeds | $1,366,300 | $1,866,300 | $3,316,300 | $4,377,500 |
| Net TVPI | 4.12x | 2.93x | 10.00x | 6.87x |
| Net IRR | 29.1% | 26.9% | 51.0% | 51.1% |
Carry is identical in the Pass and Invest columns at $60M because the Series A check returns 1.67x there, under its 2x hurdle, so it earns no carry of its own. At $150M it clears the hurdle and $188,800 of carry comes out of it.
So the follow-on adds $500,000 of net proceeds at a $60M exit and just over $1,060,000 at $150M, and lowers the blended multiple in both. Whether that is a good trade is your call. The page’s job is to put both answers, and every investor entity’s own line beneath them, in front of you before the wire goes out.
What is behind the numbers
- The same engine that values your live positions. A scenario adds proposed rounds to the facts; no separate model, no second set of rules.
- Conversion mechanics checked against recorded conversions from real cap tables, to the share.
- Exits pay the liquidation preference stack, senior first, each class taking its preference or converting, with multiples and participation as written.
- Carry at each round’s own hurdle, fee-inclusive, the way your operating agreement reads.
- Every edit to a scenario’s terms is recorded, like every other change on the platform.